Cold, wet days ahead.

I hope you got a chance to step outside and enjoy the mild temperatures Monday afternoon. The rest of the week looks cold. 

Temperatures will average 15-20° colder than normal starting Tuesday. It will be almost 30° colder than normal by Thursday when a second cold front drops our temperatures even lower.

The strong winds will also add to the misery.

And then there's the rain...

It still looks like the next storm will be a rain-maker for Houston. There could be a few snowflakes mixed in with the rain, but we're not expecting much.

The image below traces the forecast temperatures and dew points throughout the atmosphere.  Ground level is at the bottom of the image.

I've highlighted the 0°C/32°F freezing line. If you look carefully, you'll see the temperature below 3000 meters/10,000 feet will be close to freezing early Thursday morning. While most of the snow that forms aloft will melt as it falls,a few flakes could make it all the way to the ground.  Temperatures will climb a climb into the upper 30s Thursday afternoon, just enough to ensure all the precipitation that falls later in the day will be rain...all rain.  The rain moves out Friday morning, but the sky will stay mostly cloudy into the weekend.

By the way, the colder weather looks like it will stick around for at least two weeks.

Another arctic air attack

Arctic air is on the move again.

I warned you a few weeks ago that a "January Thaw" is often followed by a "February Freeze."

Well, here it comes.

A shift in the jet stream will deliver another blast of cold air later this coming week. Temperatures will average 10-15° colder than normal!  That means high temperatures might only reach the 40s while lows could drop into the 20s again by the end of the week.

Worst yet, it looks like the extremely cold air will stay around for a week...or two!

Rain is also in the forecast this coming week. At this time, it doesn't look like the freezing cold air will overlap with the rain, so we're not forecasting sleet or snow for the city of Houston.  However, depending on how fast the moisture moves into the area, there could be some sleet or snow in counties north of Houston.  I'll post an update on Monday.

Don't plant those begonias just yet.

*Updated Sunday afternoon to include the chance of wintry precip in counties north of Houston.

The sun makes a brief appearance

The sun should peek through the clouds on Friday, but don't expect to see much of it.

Our exclusive FutureTrack weather forecast model shows a mostly cloudy sky throughout the day. The clouds will clear out by evening and I'm expecting a mostly sunny sky on Saturday.

Temperatures will be cool again Friday, but a few degrees warmer than the last few days. The normal high temperature for early February is 64°. I'm expecting temperatures in the 50s most of the day, briefing topping out around 60° by mid afternoon.

The sunshine and seasonal temperatures won't stay around long. Another shift in the jet stream will send another dose of arctic air this way next week.  High temperatures will once again drop 15-20° below normal by Tuesday of next week.

Wet streets will slow you down

Periods of rain and drizzle fell across southeast Texas on Wednesday. Even more rain will fall overnight and early Thursday. And the next round could be even heavier.

Our exclusive FutureTrack forecast modelshows heavy rain across the southeast corner of the state early Thursday morning. Rush hour could be a big mess, again.

The showers should taper off by noon but it will stay cloudy, windy and cool throughout the afternoon. Temperatures will only reach the low 50s, about ten degrees colder than normal.

The sky should be dry on Friday, but clouds will linger for most of the day.  Look for a little more sun this weekend, before the rain returns next week.

Now, you can track the weather using our new iPhone app.  Search for ABC 13 or KTRK on iTunes.

NOAA uses hurricane research plane to investigate winter storms

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is using a hurricane research plane to help improve winter storm forecasts.

Like tropical weather systems, powerful winter storms often develop over the ocean, where very little weather data is available. NOAA plans to fly the Gulfstream IV aircraft into storms developing in the north Pacific from now through March.

Meteorologists aboard the jet will measure the wind speed and direction, temperature, pressure and humidity. The data will then be incorporated into computer forecast models which predict the weather several days into the future.  NOAA developed the Winter Storms Reconnaissance program last year, logging over 300 flight hours. They say the extra data improved precipitation forecasts by 10 to 15 percent.

The high speed, high altitude research jet will be relocated to MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa prior to the 2010 hurricane season.

Photo Credit: NOAA

Mars and the Moon appear together in the night sky

If the sky clears out, you'll see the full Moon pass close to the planet Mars tonight. 

The Red Planet will rise in the eastern sky at about the same time the sun is setting out west. The Moon will be just to the right of Mars.

According to StarDate magazine, even though the Red Planet will be 62 million miles away, it will be one of the brightest objects in the sky.  If you look at it through a telescope, you might be able to detect it's orange color.

You might have better luck seeing the pairing on Saturday night since the sky is more likely to be clear.

Major winter storm hits Texas hard

There's a variety of weather conditions across Texas this afternoon. It feels like spring in the southern part of the state, while winter rages again up north.

Winter Storm Warnings have been posted for the Texas Panhandle where up to a foot of snow could fall. Meanwhile, just a little ways down I-20, severe thunderstorms have produced flooding rain near Abilene and wind damage southwest of Dallas.

The weather is quiet in Houston, but that will change overnight.

Thundershowers are likely after midnight. Friday morning rush hour could be a mess with scattered heavy storms around for the drive into work. Some of the storms could be severe, with damaging winds the primary threat. Rainfall could be heavy enough to flood some feeder roads and spots with poor drainage. Total accumulations will range between 1-2".

The cold front will reach Houston around 9 AM. The late arrival means it could still be rather mild when you wake up, but temperatures will fall into the 40s throughout the afternoon.

Grad your umbrella and your coat when you leave the house tomorrow!

Clouds return Wednesday, thunder late Thursday.

Our exclusive FutureTrack shows strong thunderstorms developing across Texas on Thursday, with sleet and snow falling in the Panhandle and across Oklahoma.

Moisture will begin to collect ahead of the front on Wednesday, turning our sky cloudy. It will still be a warm day, however. The humidity will be up and a few showers could develop as moisture streams across the area. If rain develops on Wednesday, it should be light.

The main event will be late Thursday when the cold front arrives. It will not be cold enough in Houston for wintry precipitation, but we will get some strong storms and heavy rain.  Rush hour could be a mess Friday morning. Throughout the day, temperatures will fall with gusty northwest winds blowing in another batch of cold air.

By Saturday morning, some of us will be below freezing. By Sunday morning, some neighborhoods could be in the upper 20s.  We're not done with winter yet.

Seasonable temps return next week

The month of January started off with temperatures dropping down into the teens, almost twenty degrees colder than normal. But the last few days we've had near record highs as the thermometer shot up to almost 80°!

These big swings in the weather are driven by the wind in the upper atmosphere. Next week, the jet stream will change positions again.  Another batch of cold air will be dropping south from the Arctic.

Temperatures will be in the deep freeze again across the northern U.S.  We'll feel a modified form of that cool air; it won't be as cold as it was earlier this month, but it won't be as warm as last week either.

Despite the recent warm weather, we're not finished with winter yet. The average last freeze in Houston is March 1.  But we have rounded the corner and spring is getting closer!  We have passed what is statistically the coldest time of year. Our "normal" high and low temperatures are going up now.  The first 90° day isn't far away.

NOAA breaks ground on new Disaster Response Center

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is building a new office complex that will coordinate disaster response along the Gulf coast.

Officials working out of this office will respond to hurricanes, oil spills and hazardous material releases that occur anywhere along the Gulf of Mexico coast.

Rather operating from a remote location thousands of miles away, NOAA is putting it's people where they are needed. The new facility is being built in Mobile, Alabama. The 15,000 square foot building will be built to withstand a major hurricane.

The new office is expected to open in early 2011.

Photo from NOAA.

Dry winds should clear out the clouds on Thursday

A cool front carrying mild, Pacific air should reach southeast Texas early Thursday morning. Winds blowing in from the west will bring sunshine by mid-morning and temperatures will warm up quickly. I'm expecting highs in the mid 70s, more than ten degrees above normal.

Another quick moving storm could produce a few more showers on Saturday. Behind that cold front winds will blow from the north and temperatures will return to more seasonal levels early next week.  Our normal high is now 62° while the normal low is 41°.

Despite the "January Thaw," it's still way too early to start digging in the garden.  The average date of the last freeze is March 1.  There's still time for a "February Freeze."

More rain headed this way

The jet stream is changing positions again. Temperatures will be going up this week along with the chance of rain.

Two weeks ago, when the jet stream was blowing north-to-south, the coldest air in nearly 20 years blew  into Texas all the way from the Arctic Circle. The cold air has moved on.

The jet stream will be blowing west-to-east this week. Temperatures will be warming above normal again. But this weather pattern will also bring more rain to the southern U.S.  The first system will reach us by mid-week.   Another will follow in about three days. And then another...

Get ready for the rain. This is a typical El Nino weather pattern and it's likely to remain in place awhile.

Few puddles and fog for Chevron Houston Marathon

Runners participating in the Chevron Houston Marathon early Sunday morning might have to jump a few puddles during the 26 mile course. But at least it won't be raining.

About a half-inch of rain has fallen in Houston over the last few days and more will fall overnight and early Saturday. The rain should end by late Saturday afternoon, followed by slow clearing.  If the sky clears out completely by Sunday morning, the moisture in the ground will begin to evaporate and cause fog to form.  Depending on the wind speed, the visibility could be quite low at the beginning of the race. However, once the fog burns off, the sky will be mostly sunny.

Runners will enjoy the cool temperatures. 

When the gun goes off it will be in the low 40s. By the time thefirst finishers cross the line it will be about 8-10° warmer. Most will finish around 11 AM and we'll be pushing 60° by then.  It will be in the low 60s when the marathon officially ends at 1 PM.

You can watch the marathon live on ABC 13.  Also, check our website for complete coverage.

Map of earthquakes in Haiti

As of Wednesday afternoon, 37 aftershocks have rattled the country of Haiti following the 7.0 major earthquake that hit at 3:53 PM Tuesday. Thousands of people are believed to be dead. Every aftershock has been at least a 4.2 magnitude.

The map below shows the exact epicenter of every temblor.

The data is gathered by the U.S. Geological Survey. The latitude, longitude and magnitude of every earthquake is automatically plotted on our weather system.

The USGS reports, "The quake occurred along the fault line that separates the Caribbean and North American tectonic plates."  The two geologic plates shifted horizontally Tuesday afternoon causing the earthquake.  This was the strongest quake to hit Haiti in more than a century.

Houston Cooling vs. Global Warming

Last week, while temperatures were dropping well below freezing for the first time in nearly 20 years, many folks posted comments on our Facebook and Twitter pages wondering how it could be so cold during this period of climate change.

Theresa wrote, "Don't you just love global warming?"

Dollie added, "Explain THAT Al Gore!"

I gently reminded them that seven months ago we were sweating with a 113-degree heat index. High temperatures hit one hundred degrees no fewer than 17 times last summer.

There's an old saying, "Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get."

We expect Houston to be hot and humid. Obviously, it's not always like that.  The climate describes the long-term average conditions of an area; the weather describes the short-term atmospheric changes which over time, determine the climate.  It doesn't always rain in Seattle. The weather is not always windy in Chicago. It rains in the desert. And sometimes it's cold and dry in Houston.

NASA explains on their website, "Weather can change from minute-to-minute." Climate changes over a period of many years.

In my experience, the atmosphere behaves like a giant pendulum, swinging back and forth between weather extremes on either end.  Last June was very hot. This January is very cold. We're wet one week, dry the next. And so it goes, back and forth. That's why I enjoy weather forecasting; it's different every day, every week, sometimes every minute.

Regardless of whether or not you believe in global warming and climate change, last week's time in the deep freeze doesn't prove anything. We didn't set any new record lows. It's actually been colder in Houston!

Extremely cold weather is part of our climate story.

Getting warmer and wetter this week

Chances are you turned off your sprinkler before the hard freeze. Leave it off. You won't need it. Heavy rain will fall by the end of the week.

A slow-moving storm will produce rain across southern Texas. Between 2-4" of rain is possible. The showers will begin on Thursday and could include a few rumbles of thunder on Friday. Moderate to light will fall off-and-on through Saturday and perhaps into early Sunday.

Ahead of the storm, temperatures will warm up a little on Tuesday and Wednesday. Our normal high temperature is 63° now. We'll be a little closer to normal during the afternoon, although we'll still drop into the 30s at night.

When the rain arrives, it will pull down some colder air, but not cold enough for snow. We'll be in the 40s all day Saturday with gusty northerly winds.

Runners in the Chevron Houston Marathon could be running through raindrops if the storm doesn't move out fast enough. Even so, the heavy rain will leave puddles to jump over.  And the wind could be an opposing force early Sunday morning, blowing in from the north and increasing in speed throughout the morning.  Check our website for complete coverage of the big race.

Thawing out this weekend...just barely!

Temperatures should break out above freezing both Saturday and Sunday afternoon, but it will be pretty cold when you first wake up. A hard freeze is likely both days.

The cold air arrived early Thursday morning with a strong blast of arctic air. Gusty north winds blew all day and throughout Friday, dropping temperatures 25-30° colder than normal.

The sky will clear this weekend, but the sun is trying to warm a very cold airmass and it will take some time.  Highs should reach the upper 50s by Monday, the low 60s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

What do you think about this cold air?  Do you prefer this or the extreme heat we had last summer? Join the conversation on Twitter and Facebook.

Houston forecast: Cold, colder, coldest

The last time the temperature dropped below 20° for two consecutive days was in December 1989.  By Saturday and Sunday morning, temperatures in Houston will drop into the teens, as we've been forecasting for several days now.

Some communities north of Houston could be below freezing between 48-60 hours from late Thursday afternoon through Sunday morning!

The cold front arrives Thursday morning. Temperatures will start off around 50° and then fall 10-15° immediately behind the cold front.  We'll continue to cool off during the day. By early evening, most neighborhoods away from the immediate coast will be below freezing. We'll drop into the mid 20's Friday morning. It will be even colder Saturday morning, and then Sunday morning.

If that's not cold enough, gusty winds will add an additional chill to the air. Download a Wind Chill Chart here.

Some light rain will fall on Thursday and could be mixed with a little sleet and/or snow just before ending during the afternoon hours. Another little disturbance passing through on Friday might produce a few flurries. I still do not think the precipitation will be heavy, nor will it cause significant problems.  This cold air is also very dry air which will limit precipitation. Still, local road crews are spraying our bridges and overpasses as a precaution.

What do you think about this cold air?  We're chatting about it on Facebook and Twitter.  Join us!

National Hurricane Center to issue warnings earlier in 2010

Improvements in hurricane forecasts are giving forecasters more confidence.

Beginning with the 2010 season, the National Hurricane Center will officially issue tropical storm and hurricane watches 48 hours before the winds and waves reach the coast. That's 12 hours sooner.  Likewise, tropical storm and hurricane warnings will be issued 36 hours ahead of time, instead of 24.

Bill Read, director of NCH, told me last year this change was coming. This is simply a change in official policy. In practice NHC already issues storm watches and warnings earlier than required when conditions warrant. 

For example, the Hurricane Watch for Ike was issued almost 60 hours before hurricane conditions were expected to reach the coastline and it was upgraded to a Hurricane Warning earlier than required because of the size of the storm.

Hurricane season begins June 1 for the Atlantic basin and May 15 for the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Prepare now for the arctic blast!!

You have two days to prepare for a prolonged period of freezing cold temperatures.  Now is the time to wrap exposed pipes, bring in the garden hose, move tropical plants indoors, make sure your furnace is working and well-ventilated, and prepare a place inside for family pets.

By Saturday, temperatures will be 20-25° colder than normal, dropping into the teens in most areas. Even those who live along the coast will drop below freezing. Neighborhoods north of Houston might stay below freezing for more than 48 hours, from Thursday afternoon when the cold front arrives through Saturday afternoon when temperatures will just barely top the mid 30s.

This will be the coldest weather in 14 years. The last time the temperature was this cold in Houston was January 8, 1996 when the low was 19°.

Before the really cold air arrives, temperatures will drop below freezing tonight. A hard freeze is possible north of Houston where the temperatures will reach down into mid 20s for several hours.

We'll enjoy cool sunshine on Tuesday and warm up to a balmy 55° by Wednesday afternoon. And then the cold front arrives....

Thursday will start off chilly with temperatures near 50° and falling. Strong northerly winds will produce a wind chill in the teens and single digits. Rain is possible and could be mixed with sleet and/or snow as the atmosphere cools.  Friday will also be cold and windy and another disturbance could produce a few flurries.  We do not expect the precipitation to be heavy nor will it cause many problems. The cold air is another thing.

Jet stream delivers cold air

Temperatures will average colder than normal these first few days of the new year. Our normal highs are in the low 60s, but we'll be averaging 5-10° colder than that through next week.

The jet stream is dropping south, allowing very cold arctic air to invade the U.S. Typically cold air is warmed somewhat by the time it reaches Houston. But there's so much snow on the ground now up north, this cold air will easily slide south into Texas. 

Little disturbances moving along the Pacific jet stream will produce some nuisance showers on Sunday. Rainfall won't be heavy, but light rain could fall off-and-on all day. The Texans tell me the roof on Reliant Stadium will be closed for Sunday's football game against the New England Patriots.

Another little rainmaker moves through on Wednesday.  If the air is cold enough, there could be a little sleet mixed in with the rain. 

Get a complete forecast for wherever you, plus MegaDoppler 13 radar, a street level weather map and more.

2009 brought extreme weather to southeast Texas

We began the year 2009 with a drought which actually started to develop in the fall of 2008.  Widespread, soaking showers didn't return until April, when two separate weather systems dumped heavy rain and caused flash flooding. The thirsty ground easily soaked up the water, bringing an end to the drought.

We turned up the heat during the summer. The high temperature was 100° or hotter seventeen times between June, July and August. We hit 104° on June 24 and 26, the hottest it has ever been in June and just five degrees shy of the all-time hottest temperature ever recorded in Houston. Overall, the summer of 2009 was the second hottest on record!

The heat wave finally broke in early September when the first of many cool fronts brought our temperatures down to more seasonable levels.  A series of fronts in October brought more heavy rain, easing the drought conditions which started to re-develop during the summer.

No tropical weather systems tracked toward southeast Texas during the year 2009. But we did have a few severe weather events. Severe thunderstorms on March 27 produced a small tornado in Cleveland and pummeled the ground with baseball size hail. A waterspout moved ashore in Galveston on August 30 and produced minor damage along the Seawall. A few weeks before that, a tornado touched down in Beaumont.

The biggest weather event for many happened late in the year. A blast of cold air brought some snow to southeast Texas on December 4. It was the perfect ending to a weatherful year.

Recycle your Christmas tree and help rebuild the beach

Folks working to rebuild the beaches in Brazoria County need your Christmas tree, and about 19,999 others.

The Brazoria County Parks Department will be collecting used Christmas trees from December 28 - January 23 at the Pearland Recycling Center, located at 5800 Magnolia Street. You can also drop off your tree at the county precinct barns in Angleton, Alvin, Brazoria, Clute, Manvel and West Columbia.

Association Management, Inc. in the Shadow Creek Development will collect trees between December 26 - January 9.  The office is located at 12234 Shadow Creek Parkway, Building 3 in Pearland.

All decorations and lights must be removed from the tree before you donate it. No flocked or artificial trees.

County precinct crews will transport the Christmas trees to the beaches in Brazoria County. Volunteers will stake them into the ground later in January during Dunes Day.  Over time, the trees catch windblown sand and help re-establish the dune line. They need 20,000 trees to complete the project.

“The dunes are coming back, but they still need help,” explained Richard Hurd from the Brazoria County Parks Department. “Should we land another big storm (like Hurricane Ike), the dunes will need to be in the best condition possible to help protect Brazoria County and its beaches.”

Installing a home weather station

Did you get a new weather station for Christmas?!

Here's some things to keep in mind as you try and figure out where to mount the outdoor instruments:

• The thermometer and hygrometer probes must be in a shady location where the air flows freely.  Don't install them under the eaves of your house, or on a brick/stucco wall which retains heat.
• The anemometer should also be placed in a location where the wind flows without obstruction in all directions.
• The rain gauge should be out in the open, away from trees or buildings.
• The barometer is usually built into the display panel since air pressure varies little inside and outside.

To make sure your weather station is reading correctly, you might want to compare it with the "official" data recorded at National Weather Service observation sites around the area.

Photo courtesy of Davis Instruments.

You'll be COLD for Christmas!

A major winter storm is wreaking havoc across the country.  Blizzard conditions are being observed as far south as the Texas panhandle with snowflakes falling over the Metroplex!  There will be no white Christmas here in Houston, but you can throw some logs on the fire tonight.  Freezing temperatures are likely everywhere except near the immediate coastline.  And the wind won't let up much, so you can knock another 10° off the actual temperature to estimate the "feels like" temp Christmas morning.  Brrr!

Stay warm and have a Merry Christmas!

In other news, last night's storms did produce some isolated damage.  This photo, snapped by Manuel Moreno, shows a large, mature tree knocked down in Galveston.  Think of all the hurricanes this tree has survived before this storm!  Mr. Moreno says the tree came within inches of hitting his truck.